Let’s take a look at the Ken Caryl real estate year in review for 2017. If you’d like to see December’s numbers, please email me or call me directly. Different story though, for the year as a whole. Remember, when I talk about Ken Caryl real estate, I divide the neighborhood into three distinct markets; the Ken Caryl Valley (west of C470), the Ken Caryl Plains (east of C470, often referred to as the “Ranch side”), and attached homes (condos and town homes) in the Plains. Let’s take a look at the Ken Caryl real estate market.
Ken Caryl Valley 2017
- 78 homes sold (down 34% from 2016)
- $784,367 average price (up 8.1% from 2016). This was 97% of asking price
- 42 average days on market (up 17% from 2016)
- 94 new listings (down 20.3% from 2016)
Ken Caryl Plains 2017
- 59 homes sold (down 15.7% from 2016)
- $464,527 average price (up 6% from 2016). This was 99% of asking price
- 20 average days on market (down 23% from 2016)
- 59 new listings (down 25% from 2016)
Ken Caryl Condos & Town homes 2017
- 77 attached homes sold (down 3% from 2016)
- $264,969 average price (up 11.9% from 2016) This was 100% of asking price
- 14 average days on market (up 100% from 2016)
- 77 new listings (down 8.3% from 2016)
There are a few glaring numbers in this report. When you look at the number of homes, both attached and detached, that sold in the Ken Caryl Plains, you’ll notice that is the exact same number of homes that came for sale in the Ken Caryl Plains. As of right now, there are 0 attached homes for sale, and 2 detached homes for sale (one with structural issues, the other being marketed as a marijuana boutique in need of major repairs…neither quite what the general public is looking for). In a healthy real estate market, you’d like to have 4-6 homes for each buyer to choose from. Here, we had 1. As that drives prices up (prices have risen 24.8% in the past 3 years) this stops becoming a first time buyers neighborhood and it becomes a “move up” neighborhood, which means the Valley transitions from a “move up” to a luxury market.
34% fewer home sales in the Ken Caryl Valley, combined with a 17% rise in days on market, may seem alarming at first, pointing to a shift away from our strong sellers’ market. Not the case. We have seen a 25% decline in the number of homes for sale in Ken Caryl Valley over the past 4 years. As supply wanes, it only makes sense that the sales decline as well. There are currently 7 homes for sale in the Ken Caryl Valley. In order to hit what is considered a “balanced market” (getting us out of the seller’s market), we would need an additional 38 homes to hit the market tomorrow without seeing any increase in sales activity. That’s not going to happen.
So as we look to 2018, what can we expect in the Ken Caryl housing market? More of the same. Demand is high. Supply is low. Prices are rising. That’s a tough cycle to come out of. Savvy sellers who are okay leaving the neighborhood will begin placing their homes on the market in the next few weeks, beating the April rush, allowing them to maximize their home’s value. Buyers will continue to experience frustration as the inventory stays low and competition remains high. None of that is necessarily a bad thing, however. Sellers will get their homes sold for a great price. Buyers will still be able to buy into a great neighborhood, and even if it feels like they’re paying “too much,” rising home prices will build their equity so quickly they’ll realize that the sooner they buy, the better deal they got.
If you’d like to know what this all means for you, please give me a call. You can get a general idea of your home’s value on my website, or I am happy to provide you with an accurate valuation at no cost or obligation. If you’re looking to buy a home in Ken Caryl, I am happy to share with you how I can help you make that happen as well!