Take a deep breath…the campaign season is over and the sky is not falling on the Ken Caryl real estate market. That being said, the folks that were campaigning are about to actually take office and real estate in Ken Caryl did show some sluggishness in October. When I look at real estate in Ken Caryl, I divide the neighborhood into three distinct markets: The Ken Caryl Valley (homes west of C470), detached homes in the Ken Caryl Plains (east of C470, often referred to as the “Ranch side”) and attached homes in the Plains. Let’s take a look at the October numbers.
Ken Caryl Valley Home Sales
- 10 Homes currently for sale in the Ken Caryl Valley
- 9 homes pending sale
- 11 homes sold in the Ken Caryl Valley in October
- 10 homes for sale average $1,074,770 and have an average Days On Market of 35 days
- 9 homes pending average $862,222 and have an average DOM of 33 days
- 11 sales in the Ken Caryl Valley averaged $991,391 (94% of asking price) and were on for 61 days on average
Ken Caryl Plains Home Sales
- 3 homes currently for sale in the Ken Caryl Plains
- 2 homes pending sale
- 4 homes sold in the Ken Caryl Plains in October
- 3 homes for sale average $604,933 and have an average DOM of 156 days
- 2 homes pending average $496,950 and have an average DOM of 4 days
- 4 sales in the Ken Caryl Plains averaged $559,530 (97% of asking) and were on for 23 days on average
Ken Caryl Condos/Town Home Sales
- 6 condos currently for sale in Ken Caryl
- 2 condos pending sale
- 6 condos sold in Ken Caryl in October
- 6 condos for sale average $328,050 and have an average DOM of 44 days
- 2 condos pending average $295,000 and have an average DOM of 26 days
- 6 condos that sold in Ken Caryl averaged $282,075 (93% of asking) and were on for 25 days on average
Looking deeper into the numbers, a few things jump out. Home prices in the Ken Caryl Valley are up 15.5% over the October 2017, and home prices in the Plains are up 12.8%. Number of sales is down 45% in the Valley, but up slightly in the Plains. The bottom line driving all of these numbers continues to be the lack of inventory. We simply have far more buyers than we have homes for sale, which continues to drive the prices up. Anybody waiting for the upcoming real estate crash is going to have a long time to wait. Things are clearly slowing, and with so many more buyers than available homes, a crash or even large correction is highly unlikely for several years.
The condo market in Ken Caryl is perhaps the most telling of market conditions. For nearly 16 consecutive months, condos were on the market less than 8 days and had over 100% sale price to list price ratio. This month, DOM was 25 (more than double what it was last October) and the SP/LP ratio was 93%. The condo market had been the strongest in Ken Caryl for well over a year, and that is finally showing signs of a major cool down.
Another relevant statistic is the lack of homes for sale in the $600,000 and below range. Currently, there is 1 home for sale in Ken Caryl under $600,000…and it is our friend that has been on the market since June–June 2016!! It’s not actually on the market, it is simply sitting on the MLS with a sign in the yard. Essentially, there is no market for first time home buyers in Ken Caryl, which can severely limit the move up market.
This creates an amazing opportunity for people who live in that $400k-$600k home to beat the system and sell high while buying “low” at the same time. Take a look at the video to get a better explanation of how that can work.
If you would like to know how much your home is worth, you can visit my website or call me for a more detailed valuation. If you’d like information on buying a home in Ken Caryl or anywhere in the South Denver Metro area, please give me a call!