As we look at the Ken Caryl real estate numbers for January 2017, we have to ask a very important question: Is this a housing crisis or a seasonal slump? Crisis is a big word to use, and yet the fluidity of a local real estate market can have several impacts on the quality of a neighborhood. One of the true strengths of Ken Caryl is the community, and good long standing neighbors is certainly a part of that. That being said, at some point lack of movement within a neighborhood can create other struggles (deteriorating homes, massive turnover in small amounts of time, etc). As we look at the Ken Caryl real estate stats, remember I divide this into 3 distinct markets: Ken Caryl Valley (west of C470), Ken Caryl Plains (detached homes east of C470; what many neighbors refer to as “The Ranch side”), and condos/townhomes in the Ken Caryl Plains.
Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate:
- 8 homes currently for sale
- 6 homes pending sale
- 2 homes sold in the Ken Caryl Valley in January
- The 8 homes for sale average $875,800 and have been on the market an average of 123 days
- The 6 homes under contract average $696,650 and were on the market 64 days
- The 2 sales were for $465,000 (originally listed at $475,000 and on the market 38 days) and $660,000 (originally $675,000 and on the market for 207 days)
Ken Caryl Plains Real Estate:
- 4 homes currently for sale
- 6 homes pending sale
- 2 homes sold in the Ken Caryl Plains in January
- 4 homes currently for sale average $729,750 and have been on the market 120 days
- 6 homes under contract average $445,475 and were on the market for 11 days
- The 2 sales were for $403,000 (originally $409,000 and on the market 96 days) and $555,000 (originally $589,000 and on the market for 47 days)
Ken Caryl Condos for sale:
- 0 attached homes currently for sale
- 11 condos pending sale
- 5 condos sold in Ken Caryl in January
- 11 condos pending sale average $253,155 and were on the market for 17 days
- 5 condos that sold in Ken Caryl averaged $277,840 (101% of asking) and were on the market for 43 days
There are a few interesting stories within these numbers as well. 5 of the 6 homes pending sale in the Plains were on the market for less than 4 days. Likewise, 4 of the 5 condos that sold were on the market for less than 4 days and sold at over asking price. The 4 homes for sale in the Plains aren’t really for sale in my opinion. When you consider the average price of homes that are for sale is 64% higher than the average sales price, it is tough to take those seriously. That number is actually lower than reality, as one home for sale is listed at $544,000, but just increased their price $55,000 after sitting on the market since June. Again, tough to believe they’re making much of an effort to actually sell that home.
Taking that into consideration, there are currently 8 homes for sale in the entire Ken Caryl Ranch right now, with nothing for sale under $549,000. When there is nothing for the entry level buyers, that tends to eliminate the move-up buyers, which tends to hurt the luxury market.
As I said at the beginning of this post, it’s tough to tell if this is a sign of a housing crisis or just a seasonal blip. The numbers are down somewhat significantly from the past few years, and the available inventory is the most concerning. The National Association of Realtors says that 6-9 months of housing inventory creates a “balanced market.” Here in Ken Caryl, we’ve had fewer than 1 month of inventory for over a year, and haven’t been over 3 months in several years.
If you’ve thought of selling your home in Ken Caryl, read my post on the timing of selling your home, and you can get a free online valuation of your home on my website or call me for a more detailed analysis!